Axiom Insights

The week started with records. It ended with a reckoning. AVGO reported the finest AI semiconductor quarter in its history Wednesday night — then Hock Tan declined to raise the full-year number, and the market decided that wasn't good enough. By Friday's close, the S&P 500 had shed 2.63% to 7,383 and the Nasdaq was down 4.18% to 25,709. The ten-week win streak is over. Now we figure out what it means.

AVGO: The Best Quarter That Wasn't Enough

Broadcom posted $22.19 billion in Q2 revenue — up 48% year-over-year — with AI semiconductor revenue hitting a record $10.8 billion, up 143% in a single year. EPS came in at $2.44 adjusted versus the $2.40 estimate, with six core custom chip customers including Anthropic, Google, Meta, and OpenAI now driving AI revenue. The numbers were historic. The market didn't care.

Tan didn't raise the company's full-year AI semiconductor revenue forecast, reiterating guidance of "in excess of $100 billion" for fiscal 2027 — which investors had expected to be bumped higher given the momentum. The stock was down approximately 15% Thursday on disappointment that the full-year target wasn't raised. It continued lower Friday, closing the week around $385.

Critically for the fund: Broadcom expects AI semiconductor revenue to double in the second half of 2026, with a full-year forecast of $56 billion — approximately 180% growth from fiscal 2025. The company also announced a partnership with Apollo, Blackstone, and others to deploy over 20 gigawatts of AI compute capacity, with the first tranche valued at $35 billion. This is not a demand story. It is a valuation expectations story — and those are very different problems.

Jobs Friday: The Warsh Fed Gets Its Excuse to Hold

Nonfarm payrolls jumped 172,000 in May — far above the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 80,000 — while the unemployment rate held at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% for the month and 3.4% year-over-year, both in line with estimates. The labor market is not cooperating with the rate-cut narrative.

March payrolls were revised up 29,000 to 214,000 and April was revised up 64,000 to 179,000 — meaning employment in March and April combined was 93,000 higher than previously reported. Fed officials will be watching these numbers closely ahead of the June 16–17 FOMC policy meeting. A June cut is now functionally off the table. The strong print also pushed Treasury yields higher Friday, compounding the pressure on high-multiple tech.

The Warsh Fed was already hawkish. A 172K print against an 80K forecast gives it room to stay exactly where it is. For the fund's nuclear pillar, higher-for-longer reinforces the power pricing thesis. For rate-sensitive valuations in AI software and crypto, it's a headwind worth monitoring.

CEG: The Secondary Overhang Clears

Constellation Energy completed a secondary offering and share repurchase this week, having priced 11 million shares at $281.00 on June 1. Secondary offerings create near-term price pressure but resolve the overhang. The company has been expanding its nuclear capacity and securing long-term clean power contracts with AI data center customers, locking in premium, carbon-free energy revenues over many years.

The fund holds CEG at target allocation, with downside protection in place on the core position. The secondary is dilutive but not damaging to the long-duration PPA thesis. The stock was already trading below our entry zone — this clears the calendar overhang without changing the fundamental case. Net assessment: neutral to slightly constructive. A stabilization above the offering price next week would confirm it was absorbed cleanly.

META's Capital Raise and CRCL's Structural Squeeze

Meta was reportedly looking at selling billions in new shares — just days after Alphabet raised $80 billion to shore up its capex efforts — and META fell approximately 7% on the news Friday. The fund holds META at target allocation. The trim ladder above current levels remains live. This week's pullback is noise against the AI ad monetization thesis. We are holding: not trimming below the ladder, not adding.

In Digital Finance, CRCL faces a structural narrative shift that deserves honest assessment. Every major distribution channel in traditional finance is moving into stablecoin issuance, doing so on the regulatory pathway the GENIUS Act explicitly created for banks — and this is the part of the story that matters for repricing. USDC has become the default stablecoin for new U.S. institutional integrations, with GENIUS Act compliance, broker-dealer capital eligibility, BNY Mellon custody, and BlackRock-managed reserves providing the institutional foundation. The distribution moat is real. The competitive moat is narrowing. The protective stop on the core CRCL position remains essential — the thesis is intact but the position sizing is correct at current trimmed levels.

The Calendar Is Loaded

The June 16–17 FOMC meeting is now ten days out. After a 172K jobs print and a PCE reading that recently hit its highest level in nearly three years, the Warsh Fed has no political cover to cut. Watch for pre-FOMC Fed speaker commentary Monday through Wednesday — any hawkish signals will extend the yield-driven pressure on high-multiple AI names. CPI for May drops mid-week and will be the last major inflation print before the FOMC decision.

Oracle (ORCL) reports earnings Monday June 9 after close — a direct read-through for enterprise AI software demand and cloud infrastructure. A strong quarter would be a tailwind for NOW and the AI software pillar broadly. Watch Oracle's AI-related bookings commentary closely; that is the real signal. LEU's DOE contract expiration on June 30 is now 24 days away — the uranium enrichment binary event is entering its terminal window. The fund holds a stop on a portion of LEU to manage the downside scenario.

The AVGO Decision Point

The fund's most actionable item next week is completing the AVGO build into the selloff. AVGO traded between a low of $395.02 and a high of $413.80 on Friday — well within the zone where we are looking to add. Completing the position here would move the fund toward target allocation in its core AI chip anchor at a cost basis materially below the pre-earnings all-time high of $466. AI semiconductor revenue reached a record $10.8 billion, up 143% year-over-year — that is not a company in trouble. That is a company whose stock ran too far ahead of even its extraordinary reality.

The week's selloff was sharp, sentiment-driven, and entirely explicable by the gap between investor expectations and what Hock Tan was willing to put in writing. The underlying capex commitments from Google, Anthropic, OpenAI, and Meta are multi-year contracts, not quarterly guidance numbers. The fund is using the weakness to complete the position, not exit it.

"The AI capex cycle is not done" — an AI strategist on CNBC Friday morning, and the most important sentence said on television this week.

This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The Nova X Convergence Fund is a private investment portfolio. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Published June 6, 2026.

Three days, three record closes. The S&P 500 crossed 7,600 for the first time on Tuesday and kept climbing Wednesday morning, while the Dow tagged 51,322. AI chips are doing the heavy lifting — and tonight, the fund's core custom-silicon play steps to the plate.

Chips Are the Only Game in Town

MRVL surged north of +12% Tuesday after NVDA CEO Jensen Huang called it "the next trillion-dollar company." AVGO tacked on +4.7% Monday to close at an all-time high of $481.57, pre-positioning ahead of tonight's Q2 print. The AI chip pillar is running. NVDA and AMD continue to benefit from the halo — Huang's software sector endorsement gave the whole stack a bid.

HPE also caught fire, surging on an AI-fueled guidance upgrade — a clean demand-side confirmation that enterprise AI server procurement is not slowing. That matters for the fund's broader AI infrastructure thesis.

Oil and Iran: The Uninvited Guest

WTI crude jumped +3.2% to $96.73, Brent at $98.80. Iran launched missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain. The IEA warned global oil inventories could hit critical levels ahead of peak summer demand. This is not background noise — it is an active inflation re-accelerant running straight into Warsh's first FOMC meeting in two weeks.

For the fund, VST and CEG hold their bid: power infrastructure with nuclear anchoring remains the logical hedge when geopolitical risk spikes energy costs. Both are at target allocation. Watch but don't act here.

Breadth Warning Worth Flagging

Monday saw the S&P 500 post a new all-time high with only tech and energy in the green — and advance-decline spread was negative all five prior sessions. Strip out AI names and the index has gone effectively flat since February. The rally is real but thin. The fund is positioned exactly where it should be in this environment — concentrated, thesis-driven — but it's worth noting that any AI-specific air pocket hits the portfolio hard and fast.

Thursday: Jobless Claims + AVGO Fallout

Weekly initial jobless claims land Thursday morning — the last labor data point before Friday's main event. Markets are watching for any deterioration from recent readings. AVGO's post-earnings reaction will also set intraday tone for the entire semi complex. Expect NVDA, AMD, and CRWV to trade in sympathy.

Friday: Jobs Friday — The Warsh Fed's First Real Test

May nonfarm payrolls drop at 8:30 AM ET on June 5. April came in at +115K, well above the +62K consensus. May consensus clusters in the 50K–100K range, with unemployment expected to hold at 4.3%. Barclays puts the four-month moving average at just 55K — the Fed's likely focal point.

The two-sided risk is acute. A hot print (>120K) reinforces higher-for-longer with oil already at $96 and core PCE at 3.3% — that's a yield spike, a growth scare, and a potential rotation out of duration-sensitive AI names. A cold print (<50K) resurrects recession anxiety and tests whether AI capex commitments hold if end-demand softens. The sweet spot — 75K to 100K — probably keeps the tape constructive into Warsh's June 16–17 FOMC. Markets are currently pricing a 97% probability of a hold at that meeting.

The Fed's pre-meeting quiet period begins Saturday. Whatever gets said in Friday's data or Thursday's Fed speakers is the last official input before a Warsh hold or surprise. Position accordingly.

Bottom Line

The week is a two-act play: Act I ends tonight with AVGO's print — the single most important near-term data point for this fund. Act II is Jobs Friday, which determines whether the macro backdrop hands Warsh a clean hold or forces his hand. No portfolio action warranted before tonight's call. After AVGO speaks, reassess the build path. On the nuclear pillar — LEU DOE contract expiry on June 30 is now 27 days out. That binary remains live and unchanged.

This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All investment decisions involve risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The Nova X Convergence Fund is a personal investment portfolio, not a registered investment vehicle. Published June 3, 2026.

Nine straight weeks of gains. The S&P 500 closed Friday near 7,585 — within a whisker of its all-time high — while the Nasdaq tagged 26,989, capping a month in which the index gained roughly +8%. The Dow crossed 50,995. The tape looked risk-on. But read the fine print: the macro backdrop spent the week quietly tightening its vice grip. Core PCE rose to 3.3% YoY in April, Q1 GDP was revised down to +1.6%, and the freshly sworn-in Fed Chair Kevin Warsh inherited a bond market that is now pricing rate hikes by December. That is the week in one breath: AI demand is genuinely historic, inflation is genuinely stubborn, and the two facts are on a collision course.

Dell Confirms the Supercycle Is Broadening

The single most consequential event of the week did not involve a fund holding directly — and that is precisely why it matters. DELL reported fiscal Q1 Thursday after the bell and produced what Morgan Stanley's hardware analyst called, without hyperbole, one of the most impressive quarters he had ever seen in his time covering hardware. Quarterly revenue soared nearly 88% year over year, with AI server revenue alone increasing 757% from a year earlier to $16.1 billion — while adjusted EPS of $4.86 obliterated the $2.94 consensus. The stock surged +32% Friday for its best single day ever.

Dell exited fiscal Q1 with an AI server backlog of $51.3 billion, up from $43 billion at the end of Q4. The company bumped full-year FY27 revenue guidance to a range of $165–$169 billion, from $138–$142 billion previously. That is not a guidance raise — that is a category redefinition. And critically for this fund: among Dell's major AI infrastructure clients are CoreWeave, Honeywell, and Samsung Electronics. CRWV was tagged in the earnings report as a demand driver. The AI capex cycle is not slowing — it is broadening from silicon to systems.

Macro Double-Header: GDP Revised Down, PCE Revised Up

Thursday delivered the week's heaviest macro payload on a single day and the market largely shrugged — which tells you something about where conviction currently sits. Real GDP grew at an annualized rate of +1.6% in Q1 2026 according to the BEA's second estimate — a downward revision of 0.4 percentage points from the advance estimate, primarily reflecting weaker investment and consumer spending. The internals, however, are not uniformly soft: business investment in equipment and structures surged at a +10.4% annualized pace in Q1, the fastest in nearly three years, driven in part by aggressive AI infrastructure spending.

PCE inflation climbed to 3.8% YoY in April, up from 3.5% in March. Core PCE — the Fed's preferred gauge — rose to 3.3% YoY, up from 3.2% in March. Both prints came in line with estimates, which is the problem: the market expected it to be bad, it was bad, and there is no obvious catalyst for improvement in May given Middle East energy dynamics. Corporate profits tell a quietly concerning story beneath the surface — profits from current production grew by only $40 billion in Q1, a dramatic deceleration from the $247 billion increase in Q4 2025.

Kevin Warsh Takes the Helm — The Rate Path Reprices

Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Federal Reserve Chair and bond investors wasted no time betting he will prioritize inflation-fighting credibility — with traders now pricing the Fed as virtually certain to start raising rates by December. This is not a minor calendar event. Governor Christopher Waller, a Trump appointee who earlier this year advocated for rate cuts, said Friday that the Fed's next move is now just as likely to be a hike. The shift reflects Middle East-driven inflation, a resilient US economy, and an AI investment boom — all of which have fueled concerns that inflation could remain stuck above the 2% target.

The 10-year yield closed Friday near 4.44%, the 30-year flirted with 4.98%. For this fund, that is an important signal: long-duration growth equities face a stiffer headwind if Warsh validates the hawkish reprice in his first public remarks. Watch the language carefully. A Fed pivot to hiking bias would compress PLTR multiples the fastest — which makes the existing stop-limit protection on that position the right posture heading into June.

Iran Ceasefire: The Oil Price Wildcard

Reports emerged Thursday that the US and Iran had agreed to a 60-day memorandum extending the ceasefire and beginning the process of restoring vessel flows through the Strait of Hormuz — though President Trump had not yet signed off on the deal. Crude oil ended Friday near $87.93 for front-month US crude. That is lower than the intraday spikes earlier in the week but still elevated relative to pre-conflict levels. The ceasefire memo is fragile — Trump's own messaging oscillated between optimism and a threat to resume strikes within a single trading session.

For the fund's power names, the arithmetic is straightforward: a durable Hormuz reopening would ease natural gas prices and reduce the urgency premium in the power grid narrative. A ceasefire collapse sends energy back toward $100 and validates the nuclear baseload thesis even harder. VST and CEG win either way over a 12-month horizon — but the path matters for entry optimization on remaining trims.

CRCL: The Moat Is Being Tested

The fund's Digital Finance Rails pillar had the roughest week. Circle Internet Group slid from its May high near $140 to an intraday low of $98 on May 28, with the three-week peak-to-trough drawdown reaching approximately 30%. The thesis pressure is real and worth naming clearly: SoFi launched a national-bank stablecoin on May 27, joining JPMorgan, Mastercard/BVNK, and Tether USAT on the GENIUS Act lane in just four months. The framework intended to crown Circle is instead functioning as an on-ramp for every large-balance-sheet institution to compete on equal regulatory footing.

The CRCL position is at target allocation and we are not adding into this drawdown. The thesis depends on whether Circle's Circle Payments Network and USDC distribution scale faster than bank-issued stablecoin entrants can erode its market share. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have also posted 9 consecutive sessions of net outflows through May 28, with cumulative redemptions exceeding $2 billion since May 14 — and the May 27 outflow of $733.4 million was the largest single day since February. COIN is at target allocation and is likewise in hold posture. Pillar conviction intact; near-term sentiment is clearly deteriorating.

What This Week Changed

The AVGO build remains the fund's highest-priority active sequence. Dell's quarter did exactly what a thesis-confirming data point should do: it demonstrated that hyperscaler and enterprise AI capex is accelerating, not plateauing. AVGO's custom silicon exposure to that capex wave — through its hyperscaler ASIC programs — is the most concentrated expression of that demand in the portfolio. The GTC limit order structure is designed to add on weakness, not chase strength. That discipline holds.

The Calendar That Could Move Everything

The most important number of the next five trading days is Friday's May Nonfarm Payrolls report. If the labor market is still running hot — above 150K new jobs, unemployment below 4.1% — Warsh has cover to signal hike readiness without triggering a recession panic. A soft print (below 100K) reopens the rate-cut narrative and gives growth equities a tailwind. There is no scenario where this print is ignored.

Also on deck: ISM Manufacturing (Monday) and ISM Services (Wednesday) will give the first June read on whether the economy is still absorbing 3.8% headline PCE with any grace. Fed speakers are active all week — Vice Chair Jefferson and New York Fed President Williams are both scheduled, and their language on the inflation-vs-growth trade-off will set the tone for whether the December rate-hike pricing hardens or softens. No FOMC meeting until mid-June, but every speech next week will be parsed as a dry run for the June statement.

On the earnings front: the AI print season is winding down, but Salesforce (CRM) reports Wednesday — a meaningful read on enterprise software demand that will color the PLTR thesis review. Watch whether Salesforce's Agentforce commentary accelerates or flattens from last quarter. If enterprise AI adoption is stalling at the application layer, PLTR's multiple justification weakens further.

Finally, keep one eye on Hormuz. Trump had not yet signed off on the 60-day ceasefire memorandum with Iran as of Friday's close. If he does sign it next week, energy will pull back further and risk appetite broadens. If negotiations fracture, oil spikes back toward $95+, rates rip higher, and the fund's power names benefit while growth multiples compress. That binary is the single largest exogenous variable for June.

This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. The Nova X Convergence Fund is a private investment account and not a registered investment vehicle. Nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Published May 30, 2026.

Two trading days into a holiday-shortened week and the AI infrastructure trade is firing on all cylinders. The S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 7,519 — a fresh record — while the Nasdaq tagged 26,656, also an all-time high. The Russell 2000 broke above 2,900 for the first time ever, up +1.77%. The SOX semiconductor index cleared its own 52-week high. Meanwhile the 10-year yield pulled back ~10 basis points to 4.49%, and oil slid on cautious optimism around US-Iran diplomatic progress. That's the tape in one breath: risk on, rates cooperating, energy backing off.

Chips, Bonds, and a $1 Trillion Surprise

The single biggest move in the fund's neighborhood was MU — no longer a core holding, but a signal. Micron surged +19% Tuesday after UBS lifted its price target dramatically, arguing the stock could more than double from its prior close. Micron's market cap crossed $1 trillion for the first time. That kind of analyst conviction on the memory cycle, on top of AI-driven demand, is a confirming read for the broader semiconductor thesis.

AVGO traded in a wide intraday range Tuesday, with the session low testing our staged buy zone before bouncing to close around $422. The position remains below target allocation. Whether the order filled or came close will set the deployment cadence into Wednesday's open.

NVDA slipped -0.2% Tuesday — noise, not signal, following last week's post-earnings digestion. At target. No action needed. AMD and AVGO both caught incremental positive flow as the SMH ripped. The AI capex demand narrative — confirmed by BofA and Evercore, both of whom raised AVGO targets in the past week — is not losing altitude.

Tonight's Earnings Are Thesis-Relevant

Wednesday after the close is a heavy AI read: MRVL reports Q1 FY27 against a guided $2.40 billion in revenue — roughly 27% year-over-year growth — with Street focus squarely on custom AI silicon demand and FY28 design-win pipeline commentary. The market has priced in a roughly ±12% move. MRVL is a direct proxy for hyperscaler custom chip spend; a beat-and-raise is the base case, but watch the FY28 guide specifically — that's where the real signal lives.

CRM (Salesforce) reports alongside MRVL with consensus expecting ~$11.2 billion in revenue. The read-through for our PLTR and META positions is real: enterprise AI software spending, new contract signings, and margin discipline under AI investment pressure. A strong CRM print lifts the AI software pillar broadly. A miss with weak forward guidance could weigh on sentiment across Pillar 4. SNOW and SNPS also print tonight — a full AI infrastructure earnings sweep in one session.

GDP Revision + Core PCE: The Week's Heaviest Payload

Thursday morning at 8:30 AM ET is the week's most consequential window. Three releases drop simultaneously: the Q1 2026 GDP second estimate, April core PCE (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge), and initial jobless claims. Durable goods also hit at the same time. This combination will either validate the bond market's recent relief rally — the 10-year has fallen ~20 basis points from its peak — or re-ignite rate hike chatter that FOMC minutes already fanned last week.

A core PCE print that comes in at or below consensus keeps the current sentiment intact and gives the Nasdaq room to extend. A hot number reopens the rate debate and puts the 10-year back toward 4.57%+, compressing multiples on everything we own. This is the number that matters most between now and Friday's close.

Thursday also brings DELL after the close — directly thesis-relevant. Dell has a $43 billion AI server backlog and management has guided toward $50 billion in fiscal 2027 AI revenue. A strong print and raised guide is a direct confirmation of the AI infrastructure spending cycle underpinning NVDA, AVGO, and AMD. Do not sleep on this one.

Bottom Line

Nothing has broken. The macro backdrop improved Tuesday — lower yields, lower oil, record index closes. The AVGO build is active and the staged buy zone was in play. Tonight's MRVL and CRM prints set the AI tone for the back half of the week. Thursday's PCE is the single number that can change the rate narrative into June. Stay positioned. Watch the 8:30 print before making any deployment decisions Thursday morning.

This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All content reflects the views of the Nova X Convergence Fund's internal research process as of May 27, 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do not make investment decisions based solely on this letter.

Jensen Huang delivered the most consequential earnings report on the Street this year — $81.6 billion in quarterly revenue, up 85% year-over-year, with Data Center alone printing $75.2 billion — and the stock closed down nearly 2% the following day. That's the market in one sentence. The S&P 500 tagged its eighth consecutive winning week, the Dow closed at a fresh record of 50,579, and yet the bond market remains the uninvited guest at every bull party. The 10-year finished Friday at 4.57%, the 30-year at 5.06%, Brent crude still above $100, and FOMC minutes that confirmed what nobody wanted confirmed: most policymakers think another rate hike is still on the table.

NVDA Sets the Ceiling — and the Market Ignores It

NVDA reported Q1 FY27 after the bell Wednesday: $81.6B in revenue, up 20% sequentially and 85% from a year ago. Data Center came in at $75.2B, up 92% YoY — a number that would have been the entire company's annual revenue not long ago. EPS landed at $1.87, ahead of the $1.76–1.78 consensus. The company also announced an $80 billion additional share repurchase authorization and raised its quarterly cash dividend from $0.01 to $0.25 per share.

And then the stock fell. NVDA declined roughly 1.75–2% in the session following the report — a now-familiar pattern where excellence meets an ever-rising bar. Jensen Huang said on the call that "the buildout of AI factories — the largest infrastructure expansion in human history — is accelerating at extraordinary speed." Wall Street heard it, nodded, and asked what's next. The next NVDA print is confirmed for August 26, with the Street modeling $87B in Q2 revenue.

The fund's NVDA position is at full target allocation, fully deployed. The thesis does not require re-underwriting after a print like this. What it does require is patience while macro absorbs the rate-hike optionality the FOMC just put back on the table.

AMD made its own statement this week — shares hit an all-time high on the back of NVDA's results, as institutional money reaffirmed conviction in the broader AI silicon complex. The fund is at its dollar-weight target on AMD following the earlier trim on the price run. No action needed; the position is earning its keep. AVGO remains the primary build in progress — staged limit orders working, below target allocation, not chasing.

FOMC Minutes, Iran, and $100 Oil — The Triple Ceiling

The week's macro setup was hostile from the jump. FOMC minutes from the April 28–29 meeting — the final meeting chaired by Jerome Powell before his tenure ended May 15 — landed Wednesday and confirmed the hawkish lean that markets had been pricing around the edges. A majority of policymakers believe additional rate hikes may be warranted if inflation stays persistently above the 2% target. With April CPI running at 3.8% — up from just 2.4% in January — that's not a fringe view. Traders are now pricing roughly a 40% probability of a 25-basis-point hike by December.

The Iran angle is not going away. Brent crude settled near $100–$104 for the week, still roughly 50% above pre-conflict levels. Secretary Rubio flagged "some progress" on a US-Iran framework, but Iran's Supreme Leader issued a directive that near-weapons-grade uranium cannot be sent abroad — directly hardening Tehran's position on the central US demand. Mixed signals produced mixed sessions: the Dow rallied more than 600 points Tuesday as rate and oil fears briefly eased, then the 10-year pushed back to 4.62% Thursday before settling at 4.57% Friday. The 30-year closed the week at 5.06%.

"Oil is still 50% above pre-conflict levels. That's not a rounding error — it's a persistent inflation tax that makes every Fed cut a heavier political lift."

For the fund's Nuclear / Power pillar (VST, CEG, LEU), a structurally higher energy price environment is a tailwind — not a headwind. AI data centers still need baseload power regardless of where the 10-year trades. VST remains modestly above target allocation (a trim GTC is working); CEG and LEU are both at target. No pillar action required.

Digital Finance Rails: Stablecoin Infrastructure Advances, Crypto Prices Retreat

The regulatory architecture around stablecoins continues to take shape. Treasury's FinCEN and OFAC issued a joint proposed AML rule implementing the GENIUS Act this week — requiring permitted stablecoin issuers to be treated as financial institutions under the Bank Secrecy Act. This is the rails getting built. CRCL (Circle) traded under pressure despite BlackRock participating in a $222M raise for Circle's Arc Blockchain, with the stock testing key support around the $113 level. COIN remains at target allocation and is holding. Bitcoin closed the week near $74,600–$76,800 — down on the week as inflation prints and hike-odds weighed on risk assets broadly.

The near-term pressure on COIN and CRCL is rate-driven, not thesis-driven. The GENIUS Act enacted in July 2025 is now in active rulemaking — final rules must take effect no later than January 18, 2027. Every month of implementation progress is a month closer to the institutional on-ramp that this pillar is built around. Hold the line.

The Market Has Momentum. The Macro Has a Veto.

Eight straight winning weeks for the S&P is an impressive streak — the longest since December 2023. But streaks end, and the setup for next week keeps the ceiling low. Key items on the calendar:

The April PCE print on Thursday is the week's decisive data point. April CPI already printed at 3.8% — if PCE confirms that trajectory, the 40% December-hike probability climbs, yields re-test recent highs, and growth/AI names face another headwind. If PCE softens, the bull case gets breathing room. Watch it closely.

On the fund-specific front: AVGO continues to build toward target with staged limit orders working. META is below target allocation with a GTC limit order staged — watching for the pullback to fill. PLTR remains in thesis-review status with a stop-limit live; the stock has been resilient, which is both encouraging and frustrating given the unresolved review. No action on PLTR until the stop fires or the thesis is formally reaffirmed.

The next three months are the period where the macro noise either fades or forces a structural re-rating of AI multiples. NVDA's $81.6B quarter — with Data Center compounding at 92% — is the single best argument that the supercycle is real. The bond market's 5.06% 30-year is the single best argument for why the valuation math is tighter than it looks. Both things are true. We own the former and manage around the latter.

This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The Nova X Convergence Fund is a private portfolio. All views expressed are those of the author and are subject to change without notice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Published May 23, 2026.

The bond market is the story of the week, and it arrived without warning Friday night. Moody's cut the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 — the last major agency to hold the top rating — and what followed was three consecutive losing sessions for equities, a 30-year Treasury yield briefly touching 5.19% (its highest level in nearly two decades), and a 10-year note hitting 4.687%. The S&P 500 has dropped -0.67% Tuesday to close at 7,353.61. Tonight, after the close, NVDA reports. That's the week in one breath.

I. Three Down Sessions, One Culprit

The 10-year yield hit its highest point in a year Monday morning, rising above 4.60%, as the bond market finally sat with the fallout from the Moody's downgrade alongside two disappointing inflation reports from last week — stoked by worries about a return of decades-high inflation that sent even longer-term yields to their highest levels in nearly a decade. By Tuesday's close, the 10Y, 20Y, and 30Y all set 52-week highs at 4.657%, 5.189%, and 5.171% — the latter two reaching levels not seen in nearly two decades.

Stocks closed lower Tuesday, with the S&P 500 posting its third straight losing session as a jump in bond yields threatened the bull market. WTI crude held near $108.59 per barrel, up 6.4% over the prior five days — adding to the inflationary angst already rattling markets. The Moody's downgrade is the match; the kindling is a bond market already on edge from sticky inflation and a reconciliation bill in Washington that risks deepening the U.S. fiscal trajectory further.

II. The NVDA Print Is Tonight — Everything Else Is Noise

NVDA unveils its fiscal Q1 2027 results after the close today — one of the most-anticipated events on Wall Street given snowballing AI demand. Analysts are expecting earnings of $1.78 per share, up 120% year-over-year, on revenue of $79.2 billion. But the headline number is not the trade. Analysts are expecting forward revenue guidance of approximately $87 billion for Q2 FY2027 — if the company's projections are higher, it's a strong signal that NVDA remains at the center of the AI buildout.

Q2 revenue guidance and the Blackwell GPU supply-and-demand situation are the two data points that matter most tonight. If NVDA signals that Blackwell is fully sold out through 2027 and that sovereign AI demand is gaining steam, the stock will likely rally. The macro backdrop for the call is intact: the four largest hyperscalers — Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta — collectively guided approximately $725 billion in 2026 capex, up 77% from last year's $410 billion.

Options are pricing an expected move of 5% to 10% into Thursday morning, with the wider read coming from at-the-money straddles on the May 22 expiry. Large speculators in NDX futures have flipped to their largest net short position since the 2023 low ahead of this print — which means a clean beat-and-raise could trigger a violent squeeze, not just a drift. NVDA is at target. No action required pre-print; the thesis speaks for itself tonight.

Also this morning: the FOMC minutes from the April meeting dropped today — one of the final chapters of the Powell era, and notable for a historic number of dissents from the vote to hold interest rates steady. The Fed held its target range at 3.50%–3.75% at that meeting. New Chair Kevin Warsh's first test is managing a market that is repricing U.S. fiscal risk in real time.

III. Claims, Philly Fed, and the NVDA Aftershock

Thursday morning delivers the one-two macro punch: Initial Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM ET alongside the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey at 8:30 AM ET. Both land against a backdrop of a bond market already questioning the growth outlook. A weak Philly Fed print here — especially if paired with rising claims — sharpens the stagflation narrative and hands yields another reason to stay elevated.

Friday brings the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index release at 10 AM ET. The LEI declined 0.6% in March 2026 to 97.3 — a second consecutive weak reading here reinforces the slowdown signal and complicates any near-term Fed pivot. The Conference Board has flagged that higher oil prices and supply chain tensions will likely place additional upward pressure on inflation and further reduce consumers' purchasing power. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final also prints Friday.

The real Thursday catalyst is the NVDA post-earnings tape. If Jensen delivers a guide above $87B with Blackwell sold out and Rubin on track, chip names — NVDA, AMD, AVGO — could rip and neutralize three days of yield-driven pain. A miss or a cautious tone on China revenue — guidance has already assumed no Data Center AI chip sales to China — and the Nasdaq adds to its losses. For the fund's AI Chips and Specialized GPU Cloud pillars, tonight is the most important single print of the quarter.

Nothing material has changed on the fund's thesis. The bond market volatility is real but it is not new — it's the same fiscal-risk story that has been building since April. The NVDA print tonight either reanchors the AI narrative or gives bears their first clean entry since the Liberation Day lows. Watch the Q2 guide number. Everything else is secondary.

This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All information is sourced from publicly available market data and news as of May 20, 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The Nova X Convergence Fund is a private investment portfolio. Nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Tuesday's CPI print landed like a grenade. April headline inflation came in at 3.8% — a three-year high, a full tick above consensus — and within hours the market was pricing in a rate hike, not a cut. The Nasdaq dropped 1.11%, the S&P shed 0.67%, chips reversed hard, and six weeks of record-setting momentum absorbed its first real gut-check. Meanwhile, Air Force One was wheels-up for Beijing. The week's two dominant narratives — sticky inflation and the Trump-Xi summit — are now running simultaneously into Thursday and Friday.

I. The CPI Print Is the Week's Defining Data Point

Monday opened cleanly — the S&P was still riding its longest weekly win streak since 2024, and AI names were near all-time highs. Tuesday ended that mood. Headline CPI at 3.8% exceeded the 3.7% consensus, driven by elevated energy costs tied directly to Hormuz disruption. Treasury yields climbed, the dollar strengthened, and markets reduced expectations for any near-term Fed easing. Bond markets have now essentially priced out cuts for the year — and options traders are beginning to lean toward potential tightening in 2027.

For the pillars, the immediate read-through was negative but not thesis-breaking. NVDA closed at a record high as recently as Tuesday morning before the CPI hit; the intraday reversal was macro-driven, not fundamental. AVGO is the more interesting story: the stock whipsawed in a $408–$429 range on Tuesday alone, with Apollo and Blackstone in active talks to provide roughly $35 billion in private credit financing for Broadcom's custom AI chip work with OpenAI — which would be the largest private credit transaction ever executed. That is not a headline you ignore. The AVGO build thesis just got a structural accelerant.

CRWV is trading above its fund cost basis today after a choppy post-earnings week — the stock moved between $101 and $113 intraday on Wednesday. The Q2 revenue guidance miss is already digested; what the market is recalibrating toward is the $66.8B contracted backlog and 3.5+ gigawatts of contracted power. Position is at target. No action warranted.

II. Trump-Xi: The Summit That Will Move Chips, Rare Earths, and AI Policy

Trump departed Washington Tuesday afternoon with 16 top business executives in tow — trade is the stated top priority, but AI guardrails and China's role in the Iran conflict are on the formal agenda as well. The president arrives in Beijing Wednesday evening; bilateral meetings with Xi are Thursday. The one concrete deliverable flagged by senior U.S. officials is a bilateral Board of Trade — a formal dispute-resolution mechanism previewed since March Paris talks. Expectations from Wolfe Research and Raymond James are explicitly modest: détente reinforcement, not breakthrough. Any positive signal on export-control extension or rare earth flows is upside for the AI Chips pillar. Any escalation — on Iranian oil sanctions or semiconductor restrictions — is an immediate headwind.

The tariff legal landscape adds complexity. The Court of International Trade's May 7 ruling invalidating Section 122 tariffs weakened Trump's negotiating leverage heading into the room. The administration is running parallel Section 301 investigations as a replacement framework, but new duties won't land until H2. For now, the effective rate on Chinese goods sits well below last year's peak — the truce through November 2026 holds.

Thursday May 14 — Retail Sales + Xi Bilateral + AMAT Earnings

Advance Retail Sales drop at 8:30 AM ET alongside Initial Claims, Import/Export prices, and Business Inventories. This is the consumer demand read after April's energy-price spike — if spending holds, it reinforces the "no cuts needed" narrative and validates the power/energy infrastructure thesis further. Also Thursday: Applied Materials (AMAT) reports after close — the single best read-through on semiconductor capex cycle health. Options markets are pricing a ±8.7% move. AMAT guidance will tell us whether hyperscaler fab investment is accelerating or pausing.

Thursday is also the day of the Trump-Xi bilateral meetings and state banquet. Any joint statement language around AI, export controls, or rare earths lands as a direct thesis event. Watch for wire headlines out of Beijing between 8:00 PM and midnight ET.

Friday May 15 — Powell Out, Warsh In, UMich Sentiment

Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chair officially ends Friday. The Senate confirmed Warsh as Fed governor on Tuesday — the full chair confirmation vote is expected by end of week. Warsh is viewed as more open to rate flexibility, but the CPI print makes any near-term cut signal nearly impossible to deliver credibly. Markets will trade the symbolism of the transition regardless. Also Friday: Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Industrial Production, and the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index — another gauge of how energy-driven inflation is hitting household confidence.

This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All views expressed are those of the author as of May 13, 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.

This week gave you everything: a peace-deal surge that cratered oil 7% in a single session, a Hormuz re-escalation that took half of it back by Friday, a fractured Fed that logged its most dissent-heavy vote since 1992, and AMD printing a clean Q1 beat that Wall Street rewarded with analyst upgrades across the board. Meanwhile, Trump boards Air Force One for Beijing on May 14 — the first U.S. presidential visit to China in nearly a decade — and the outcome of that summit will shape the chip export control and rare earth landscape the fund lives inside. Rarely does a single week hand you this many thesis-relevant data points simultaneously.

I. Hormuz: Still the Most Important Price Signal in the Portfolio

Wednesday was the week's inflection. Two U.S. officials and two other sources told Axios that the White House believes it is nearing a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding to end the war and establish a framework for more detailed nuclear talks. The crude market moved with conviction: U.S. crude closed down 7%, at $95.08 per barrel, and Brent closed down 7.8%, at $101.27 per barrel.

That lasted about 36 hours. Oil prices moved sharply higher on Thursday after a media report that the U.S. military had carried out strikes on Iranian locations near the Strait of Hormuz. Oil resumed its rally Friday after the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire in the Strait, fanning fears that the fragile ceasefire was unraveling. Both Brent and WTI remain in the red for the week, down more than 6%. Net-net: oil structurally lower on the week, but resolution is nowhere near confirmed.

II. AMD Beat, Fed Cracked, Macro Map Shifted

AMD delivered the cleanest earnings print of the AI chip complex this week. AMD reported strong Q1 2026 earnings with $10.25 billion in revenue, leading to significant analyst upgrades — Bernstein raised its price target to $525, while Goldman Sachs set a new target of $450 after noting strong demand in AI-focused data center sales. The position is at correct dollar weight after the prior trim. No action warranted; the thesis is doing exactly what it was supposed to do.

The Fed was the other major market-mover. The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at the 3.5%–3.75% target range for a third consecutive meeting — but the decision was not unanimous, with Governor Miran voting to lower rates by 25bps and three other members objecting to the easing bias language in the statement. The 8-4 vote marked the first time since October 1992 that four officials dissented against a FOMC decision. Powell noted that core inflation is running at 3.2%, "moving, albeit just a little bit, in the wrong direction," with headline inflation pressure emanating from the Gulf.

III. Beijing Incoming — Rare Earths and Chip Controls Are the Variables

The macro event that will matter most for this fund next week doesn't happen in Washington — it happens in Beijing. When Trump lands in Beijing on May 14, he will become the first U.S. president to visit China in nearly a decade. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has signaled that Trump will seek "stability" rather than a reset, with recent talks centering on rare-earth supply and the outlines of a joint "Board of Trade."

The governments would lower tariffs on products they approve for trade and hike them — or keep them at already high levels — on products they want to block, creating what one person described as a "tariff canyon." For the AI chip complex, the critical read-through is what happens to export controls on advanced semiconductors. On strategic flash points such as Taiwan, Middle East security, and export controls on advanced chips, substantive agreement is unlikely. That's the base case. But even a softening in tone on rare earth export curbs would be a direct positive for NVDA, AMD, and AVGO's supply chain risk premium.

IV. Digital Finance Rails — GENIUS Implementation Clock Ticking

No dramatic headline for COIN or CRCL this week, but the quiet regulatory machinery keeps grinding in the right direction. The FDIC announced a 90-day comment period extension for its notice of proposed rulemaking to implement the GENIUS Act for FDIC-supervised state nonmember banks and state savings associations seeking to issue payment stablecoins through a subsidiary — the comment period closes May 18. Final rules crystallizing means the compliance layer for USDC-scale stablecoin infrastructure — CRCL's entire reason for existing — becomes law, not just a Senate vote. Both positions are at target. Hold.

V. Five Catalysts That Will Define the Next Letter

The Iran situation carries the most immediate binary risk. The U.S. and Iran have reportedly been working with mediators on a one-page framework to restart talks over a lasting peace deal, with discussions anticipated to kick off next week in Pakistan. "The risk of a proposed U.S. peace deal breaking down will likely keep oil markets volatile," said ANZ Research. If talks in Islamabad produce even preliminary language on Hormuz transit, oil could retrace another leg lower — and the near-term pressure on Pillar II names like VST and CEG would increase. That is not a reason to trim below target; it is a reason to be patient on any adds.

NVDA earnings will be the capstone. Everything this fund owns in Pillar I — and the structural credibility of the entire AI capex supercycle narrative — runs through Nvidia's guidance on data center revenue and Blackwell shipment cadence. With 84% of S&P 500 companies reporting EPS above estimates this season — above both the 5-year and 10-year averages — the bar for AI infrastructure names is set high. Nvidia will need to clear it with forward guidance, not just Q1 results.

"The Beijing summit and the Hormuz framework are the same trade: both resolve to lower energy costs and lower supply chain risk for AI infrastructure. If both move in the right direction simultaneously, this portfolio is positioned to capture it across every pillar."

The fund's five pillars absorbed a week of maximum noise — a peace deal that wasn't, a Fed vote that fractured, an AMD quarter that delivered, and a China summit that lands in five days. None of it changes the structural build. AVGO orders remain working below target; META fills on any dip toward the GTC level; PLTR stop-limit is the only live decision point and nothing this week moved that needle. CRWV, COIN, and CRCL are at target — park them.

The fund does not trade the Hormuz ceasefire. It owns the AI buildout that requires uninterruptible baseload power regardless of where WTI settles. It owns the stablecoin rails that are becoming federal law whether or not oil reopens. It owns the chip complex that is being confirmed, quarter by quarter, as the backbone of the next computing era. Stay the course. Let Beijing and Islamabad do their work. Watch NVDA earnings like the earnings report of the decade — because for this thesis, it is.

This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The Nova X Convergence Fund is a private investment account. All information is believed to be from reliable sources but is not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Published May 9, 2026.

This week handed us whiplash by Tuesday and a potential war-ending headline by Wednesday morning. WTI crude plunged to $91.10 and Brent broke below $100 — the first sub-$100 Brent print since April 22 — after Axios reported the U.S. and Iran are closing in on a 14-point memorandum of understanding to end the conflict. The S&P 500 futures surged more than 0.9% pre-market on the news. This is the dominant macro event of the week, and it has direct consequences for the fund on multiple fronts.

I. The Pattern: Spike, Bounce, Peace Headline

Monday opened ugly. The UAE intercepted Iranian missiles — the first activation of its missile alert system since the ceasefire began — and oil spiked. WTI surged to $106.42 and Brent hit $114.44, the Dow shed 557 points, and the S&P 500 slid 0.41% to 7,200.75. Only Energy and Tech closed green in the S&P that session.

Tuesday stabilized. Oil eased after the Iran strikes did not escalate into full-blown infrastructure attacks, and markets recovered. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both rose 0.7% to fresh record highs, with tech leading the way, up more than 2% on the day. Then the earnings tape started printing.

Wednesday flipped the script entirely. The Axios peace-deal report hit overnight, Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 1.6%, and the energy complex cratered. Gas prices had just punched past $4.50/gallon nationally — fewer than 50 cents from the all-time high — and this headline is the most meaningful downside catalyst for that number since the war began.

II. Earnings: The Fund's Scorecard

AMD ($AMD) delivered. Q1 revenue came in at $10.25 billion, up 38% year-over-year, crushing the $9.89B consensus. Data Center revenue surged 57% to $5.8 billion. Non-GAAP EPS of $1.37 beat estimates of $1.28. Q2 guidance of $11.2 billion landed above consensus. The stock surged after hours, and Morgan Stanley lifted its price target to $360. The AI chip thesis is executing. Our position is at correct dollar weight — this print confirms it.

PLTR ($PLTR) is the hard conversation. Revenue jumped 85% year-over-year to $1.63 billion, beating the $1.53B estimate. EPS of $0.33 beat $0.28. Full-year guidance was raised across every metric. The stock still dropped 7% on Tuesday. The market is saying the valuation premium demands more than a beat-and-raise — it demands perfection plus acceleration. Jefferies called the fundamentals exceptional but the multiple "heroic." The stop-limit remains live. No new action until it fires or the thesis is formally reaffirmed. That calculus has not changed.

COIN ($COIN) reports Thursday after close. Consensus expects EPS of $0.36 on revenue of $1.51 billion. Bitcoin has been trading above $80,000 this week and the CLARITY Act stablecoin compromise is a direct tailwind for CRCL and the broader Digital Finance Rails pillar. Lawmakers reaching a compromise on stablecoin regulation is precisely the structural catalyst this pillar was built around. Watch Thursday's print closely — trading volume, institutional adoption, and regulatory commentary are the three metrics that matter.

III. The Final 48: Jobs, Coinbase, and the Iran Variable

Thursday: Initial jobless claims drop at 7:30 a.m. ET (prior: 189K). COIN reports after the bell — this is the fund's most important remaining earnings event of the week. Also on Thursday: Airbnb, Datadog, Block, Lyft, and Affirm all report. Watch Datadog as a proxy read on enterprise AI software spend.

Friday: April Non-Farm Payrolls at 7:30 a.m. ET. Consensus sits at ~49,000 jobs added, unemployment at 4.3%. This is the first NFP print after the federal workforce disruption, so the range of outcomes is wide. A soft print gives the Fed cover to pivot — which is a direct tailwind for rate-sensitive growth names across all five pillars. A hot print keeps the "higher for longer" hawks in control, especially as oil-driven inflation remains sticky even with today's crude selloff.

The Iran variable is the wildcard that overrides everything else. A signed 14-point MOU would be the single largest positive macro shock of the year: oil drops materially, inflation expectations reprice, and Fed rate-cut odds surge. The fund's nuclear and power pillar — VST, CEG, LEU — is thesis-driven on long-duration AI data center demand, not oil prices, so a peace deal does not impair those positions. It does, however, remove a key upside volatility premium from energy names broadly. For this fund, a deal is net positive: lower inflation, higher growth expectations, and AI infrastructure spending accelerates as energy cost uncertainty fades.

Bottom line: AMD confirmed the AI chip thesis in print. PLTR's stop rides. COIN on Thursday is the remaining earnings watch. Friday's NFP is the macro swing factor. And the Iran headline — if it holds — is the week's most consequential development for the portfolio's risk backdrop. No discretionary position changes warranted before Friday's close. Let the tape come to us.

This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The Nova X Convergence Fund is a private investment portfolio. All figures cited reflect publicly available market data as of May 6, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing in this letter should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security.

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,230. The Nasdaq settled at 25,114. Both indices touched all-time intraday highs. April was the S&P's best calendar month since November 2020 — up more than 10% — and the Nasdaq's best since April 2020, up more than 15%. The rally came against a backdrop of $100-per-barrel crude, $6-per-gallon gasoline in California, an Iran war that has now disrupted global shipping for more than two months, and a Federal Reserve that just voted 8-to-4 to do nothing. Markets are speaking clearly. The question is whether you are listening.

This was not a week of noise. It was a week of confirmation — on AI capex, on monetary policy transition, and on the geopolitical stalemate that continues to underwrite the fund's nuclear and power thesis. Let me take each in turn.

I. The $650 Billion Confirmation

Wednesday night delivered the most consequential earnings cluster of the year. Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon all reported Q1 2026 results after the close. Every single one beat on revenue. Every single one raised full-year capital expenditure guidance. Combined 2026 AI infrastructure spending across the five major hyperscalers is now on track to exceed $650 billion — a figure larger than the GDP of most European countries.

The specifics matter. Alphabet delivered $109.9 billion in revenue; Google Cloud grew 63% year-over-year to $20 billion, blowing past the $18 billion estimate and accelerating sharply from 48% growth in Q4 2025. The company guided 2026 capex to $180–$190 billion and said next year's spending will "significantly increase" from there. Microsoft's AI business is now running at a $37 billion annualized revenue rate, up 123% year-over-year. Azure remains supply-constrained — management used the phrase "supply shortage growing" for the third consecutive quarter. Meta beat on EPS ($7.31 vs. $6.79 estimated) and revenue ($56.31 billion, up 33% year-over-year — the fastest growth since 2021) but raised its full-year capex range to $125–$145 billion, citing higher memory component costs and expanded data center capacity. The stock fell roughly 7% after-hours on the user miss and capex shock. It recovered most of those losses by Friday.

The chip complex had a textured week. NVDA jumped 4% early in the week, briefly pushing its market cap above $5 trillion. A Tuesday selloff — triggered by a leaked report questioning OpenAI's internal revenue trajectory, not any deterioration in chip fundamentals — clipped the gains. By Thursday and Friday, the tape corrected itself. More interesting: AMD and AVGO each pushed roughly +3% on April 30, partially decoupling from Nvidia as hyperscaler earnings confirmed the custom silicon buildout. Meta explicitly noted it is rolling out more than 1 gigawatt of custom silicon developed with Broadcom, while also deploying AMD chips alongside new NVIDIA systems. The AI trade is no longer a one-ticker trade. That is good news for a fund that holds all three.

AVGO's $73 billion custom silicon backlog — anchored by the Google TPU partnership through 2031 and the deepening Meta MTIA pact — makes it structurally insulated from Nvidia's day-to-day volatility in ways that were underappreciated before this earnings season. Our AVGO build remains live on staged limit orders below the current ask. I would not chase this week's print. I would wait for the orders to fill.

II. Powell's Last Stand — and the 8-4 Fracture

The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% on Wednesday. That part was fully priced. What was not priced: four FOMC members dissented — the most since 1992 — producing an 8-4 split decision. The dissenters wanted cuts. The holdouts wanted to stay put in the face of still-elevated energy inflation and a labor market that, while softening, hasn't broken. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed more than 5 basis points to 4.41% on the announcement.

Wednesday also likely marked Jerome Powell's final meeting as Fed Chair. Kevin Warsh's nomination cleared the Senate Banking Committee along party lines. Powell, for his part, said he will remain on the Board of Governors after his chairmanship concludes on May 15 — citing the legal actions taken against him. "The things that have happened really in the last three months have left me no choice but to stay," he said. The incoming Warsh Fed enters with an FOMC already fractured and a market that, post-earnings, briefly shifted bets toward a December rate hike (CME FedWatch moved from 0% to 9.1% probability overnight).

III. GDP, Iran, and the Macro Backdrop

The BEA's advance estimate dropped Thursday: Q1 2026 real GDP grew at a 2.0% annualized rate, rebounding sharply from Q4 2025's 0.5% pace. The headline composition matters: investment led the acceleration, with AI-driven equipment spending a primary contributor. Consumer spending decelerated — California gasoline prices have hit $6 per gallon, a 30% increase since U.S.-Israeli operations against Iran began in late February — and the personal savings rate declined as households drew down reserves to maintain consumption. That is not a sustainable configuration.

On the geopolitical front, Iranian state media reported Thursday that Tehran had sent a fresh negotiation proposal to Pakistani mediators. Markets rallied on the headline. The proposal has not been accepted, Hormuz remains disrupted, and WTI crude settled the week at roughly $102/barrel. The structural effect — persistently elevated energy costs that raise the value of domestic baseload power and accelerate data center operators' appetite for dedicated nuclear PPAs — continues to compound in the fund's favor.

What the Week Changed — and What It Didn't

The earnings week confirmed the AI buildout's non-negotiability. It also introduced two variables to monitor: the META user count decline — attributed to internet disruptions in Iran and a WhatsApp restriction in Russia — and the rising cost of AI infrastructure components, particularly HBM memory, which is sold out through 2026. The latter is a margin headwind for META and MSFT but a direct demand signal for the chip and infrastructure layer. This fund sits on the right side of that equation.

On META: the thesis is the AI ad monetization layer, not the user count. Revenue grew 33% — the fastest pace since 2021 — and the ads business alone generated $55 billion. The capex raise reflects higher memory prices, not a change in strategy. The after-hours selloff was overdone. A GTC limit order to build toward target allocation remains working in NQ. I would fill it if triggered; I would not lower it to chase.

On AVGO: the earnings week made the strongest case yet for completing this build. Custom silicon is not a trend — it is a decade-long structural commitment by every major hyperscaler. AVGO's $73 billion backlog, its TPU lock-in with Google through 2031, and its deepening Meta MTIA work make it the fund's most asymmetric incomplete position. Staged limit orders to build toward target allocation remain live below the current ask. Do not chase the Friday close.

"The supply shortage is growing." Microsoft said it three quarters in a row. Every quarter it goes unsaid is a quarter the GPU cloud thesis weakens. This week, they said it again.

The Calendar That Matters

The next two weeks are bridge weeks before the most important single event on the fund's calendar: NVDA reports May 20. That print — against a backdrop of $650B+ in confirmed hyperscaler capex and a supply-constrained Azure — is the next genuine thesis checkpoint for Pillars 1 and 5. Between now and then, three things warrant active attention.

Jobs Report (Friday, May 8). April nonfarm payrolls land Friday morning. The last read showed unemployment ticking up to 4.3%. A further softening — coupled with persistent energy inflation — sharpens the Fed's dilemma and amplifies the case for a Warsh Fed that ultimately tilts toward cuts. Watch the 10-year reaction more than the headline number. A move above 4.50% would be the first genuine threat to the fund's duration-sensitive nuclear names.

Kevin Warsh's Confirmation Vote. The Senate Banking Committee cleared Warsh along party lines. A full Senate floor vote is expected before May 15. Warsh's confirmation brings a known deregulatory posture on digital assets and a more accommodative lean on rates — both tailwinds for Digital Finance Rails. The 4-dissenter FOMC he inherits is the real story: building consensus to cut into an inflationary energy environment will test his tenure from day one.

Iran Negotiations. Tehran's proposal to Pakistani mediators is the first formal overture in three weeks. Any credible ceasefire framework that reopens Hormuz would send WTI lower and ease the energy inflation pressure that currently props up nuclear PPA pricing. This is a two-sided risk: a resolution would trim VST and CEG on the energy premium while unlocking broader equity expansion. I am not positioned for a resolution. The base case remains prolonged disruption. But the tail is live.

No major fund-name earnings are scheduled for next week. This is a window to let the GTC orders work and resist the temptation to read too much into the Monday open. The fund enters May up +9.42% from cost basis, with the AI buildout confirmed, the power thesis hardening, and two incomplete positions — AVGO and META — that the market is now offering at prices consistent with the fund's entry plan. The discipline is in the waiting.

This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The Nova X Convergence Fund is a personal investment portfolio. All figures and positions reflect data as of May 2, 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions. — May 2, 2026

At 8 p.m. Eastern tomorrow night, Donald Trump's ultimatum to Iran expires. The president has threatened to destroy every power plant and bridge in the country if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by then. Tehran has rejected the 45-day ceasefire proposal floating through Omani intermediaries. WTI settled at $112.41 on Monday. The S&P 500, somehow, is up four straight sessions and posted its best weekly gain in four months — +3.4% on the S&P, +4.4% on the Nasdaq — over a holiday-shortened week in which the Strait has now been effectively closed for 37 consecutive days.

That juxtaposition — a war escalating toward a genuine inflection point while equities bounce off technical lows — is either the market telling you something important, or the market being wrong. We think it is mostly the former, with a meaningful tail of the latter.

Here is what actually happened this week, what it means for the five pillars, and where we are adding conviction versus trimming exposure.

The Strait Is the Only Variable That Matters Right Now

Let's be precise about the stakes. The Strait of Hormuz is a 21-mile-wide seaway through which roughly 20% of global oil supply normally transits. Since it went dark on March 2, the IEA has called this the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Brent initially spiked past $120 before strategic reserve releases and temporary Russian and Iranian sanctions waivers — a combined 400 million barrels from the biggest SPR draw on record — provided enough artificial breathing room to push prices back toward the $108–$113 range where they trade today.

The breathing room is nearly exhausted. Industry executives and analysts have warned that the window to avoid a materially worse shock closes around mid-April. Trump knows this; the escalating rhetoric — threatening to level Iranian power plants and bridges by Tuesday night — is a function of that timeline as much as any negotiating posture. Iran has publicly rejected temporary ceasefire terms. Israel is skeptical any deal is achievable. The ceasefire proposal that briefly sent equities and oil lurching in opposite directions on Monday is, per every credible read of the room, not good enough for either side.

What does this mean for Pillar 2 — Power Infrastructure and Nuclear? It strengthens it unambiguously. VST and CEG are among the handful of S&P 500 names making new 52-week highs this week, alongside utility peers who are benefiting from exactly the dynamic we have argued for since the fund's inception: a world where reliable, domestic, non-hydrocarbon baseload power is no longer a utility-sector afterthought but a strategic national asset. The Europeans are learning this the hard way. Dutch TTF gas benchmarks nearly doubled to over €60/MWh by mid-March; UK inflation is now expected to breach 5% this year. That pain is the advertisement for nuclear energy that the industry spent a decade trying and failing to place.

We are not trimming VST or CEG. The thesis is being validated in real time at a speed that exceeds our original underwriting assumptions.

Coinbase Just Got a Federal Badge. The CLARITY Act Is on the Clock.

The most consequential event of the week for this fund had nothing to do with oil or ceasefire talks. On April 2, Coinbase (COIN) received conditional approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to operate as a national trust bank. This is not a press release. It is a structural re-rating event.

Here is what it actually means: a federal trust charter replaces Coinbase's patchwork of 50 state-level licenses with a single nationwide regulatory status, directly positioning the company inside the stablecoin custody and settlement infrastructure being built under the GENIUS Act. The OCC approval lets Coinbase pursue not just digital asset custody, but payments infrastructure under federal supervision — the same infrastructure that Circle, Paxos, BitGo, and Ripple are building in parallel. Coinbase's CLO Paul Grewal confirmed the company is pursuing both the charter and the CLARITY Act legislative track simultaneously, and he is not being subtle about the urgency: the April Senate markup is, per multiple sources, the last realistic legislative window before the political calendar closes.

The stablecoin market now stands at a combined $260 billion in market cap — three times its 2023 level. The GENIUS Act defined stablecoins as payment instruments, not securities. The CLARITY Act would layer a full capital-markets rulebook on top of that foundation. Coinbase's federal charter positions it at the center of both.

The Rally Is Real. The Conviction Behind It Is Not.

The S&P 500's best week in four months — five consecutive weeks of decline reversed in four shortened sessions — deserves respect but not worship. The recovery was driven by technical oversold conditions and a Mag 7 snapback, not by any fundamental improvement in the earnings or macro outlook. The index remains below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. It is still 5.67% off its January 27 all-time high.

The Federal Reserve, for its part, gave the market exactly nothing new at its March 18 meeting. Rates stay at 3.5–3.75%. The median dot still projects one cut in 2026 — likely in the second half, after Kevin Warsh is expected to take the chair from Powell in May. The Fed revised headline PCE to 2.7% for 2026, up from the 2.4% December projection, explicitly citing the Iran oil shock as the driver. GDP growth was nudged up to 2.4%. In plain language: the Fed now expects hotter inflation and stronger growth simultaneously, and it is not going to do anything about either until it sees sustained directional clarity. That is not a policy that hurts this fund's pillars.

On tariffs: the Supreme Court's invalidation of the IEEPA tariffs earlier this year, followed by Trump's imposition of a 15% Section 122 replacement — now at an effective rate of roughly 13.7%, down from a peak of 27% in April 2025 — is net positive for AI Infrastructure. The risk of a broad 25%-and-higher semiconductor tariff regime that threatened to crater NVDA, AMD, and AVGO supply chains has been significantly reduced by the legal constraint. A narrow 25% tariff on re-exported chips remains in place, but hyperscaler capex commitments — which drive demand for all three names — are not being revised down. The structural build continues.

For PLTR and CRWV, the bounce matters only insofar as it confirms institutional willingness to re-engage growth names on dips. The enterprise AI software thesis at Palantir and the specialized GPU cloud thesis at CoreWeave are not functions of the Hormuz ceasefire calendar. They are functions of hyperscaler capex commitments that have not flinched. We are holding both.

TSLA remains the optionality position it has always been in this portfolio — down roughly 17% in 2026, on track to snap a three-year win streak, buffeted by macro fear and brand pressure. We have not added. We have not sold. That is the correct posture for an optionality allocation.

What Happens at 8 p.m. Tomorrow Is Not the Question

The honest answer is that we do not know what happens when Tuesday's deadline expires. Trump may escalate massively; he may grant a 48-hour extension; a partial deal may emerge through Pakistan or Oman. Each of those outcomes produces a different oil price on Wednesday morning. None of them changes the five-year structural thesis of this fund by a single basis point.

What we know with high confidence: the world that emerges from this war — regardless of when it ends — will be one that values domestic nuclear baseload, federated digital payment infrastructure, AI-driven defense and enterprise software, and specialized compute more than the world that entered it. We built the portfolio for that world. The war is accelerating its arrival.

Hold the positions. Watch the CLARITY Act markup. And keep your eye on the mid-April Hormuz supply window — that is the real deadline the oil market is pricing, not Tuesday night's press conference.

This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. The Nova X Convergence Fund may hold positions in any securities mentioned. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. This letter reflects the views of the author as of April 6, 2026, and may not be updated to reflect subsequent developments.

Seven days ago we published Stay Calm and Keep Buying and committed to standing behind it. The market has spent the week trying to test that commitment. Brent crude pushed back through $111 a barrel after the President doubled down on his Hormuz ultimatum. OPEC+ responded with a token 206,000 barrel-per-day production hike for May — a number so small it functions as an admission that the cartel cannot fix this. Circle had the worst single session in its public history, falling roughly 20 percent and shedding $5.6 billion of market value on a single draft of the CLARITY Act. The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.5–3.75 percent, projected exactly one cut for the year, and Chairman Powell told the country that net job creation has effectively gone to zero. Lebanon’s war crossed 1,400 dead.

That is what the headlines say. Here is what they mean.

Nothing on that list invalidates a single one of the five structural pillars in this fund. Several of them strengthen the case. The market is treating each event as evidence to flee. We are treating each event as evidence to stay positioned — and in select names, to add.

Six numbers. Each one of them, properly read, is a brick in the same structural wall.

NVDA · AMD · AVGO — The Sector Just Crossed $1 Trillion

NVIDIA is down roughly six percent year-to-date. The headline number is ugly. The underlying picture is the opposite of ugly. The company just reported $215.9 billion in annual revenue — a 65 percent increase year over year — with $62.3 billion of data center revenue in the most recent quarter alone, up 75 percent. Thirty-eight Wall Street analysts now carry a Strong Buy rating with an average price target of $268, implying 52 percent upside from current levels. The Street-high target sits at $352.

This week, the global semiconductor industry is on track to cross the $1 trillion annual sales threshold for the first time in history, with growth tracking 30 percent year over year. Bank of America identified six names as the leaders of that surge. The two it put at the top of the list are NVIDIA and Broadcom — the same two names anchoring the AI hardware pillar of this fund.

If you wanted a single sentence to describe what is happening: the largest capital cycle in industrial history is being repriced lower in real time by investors who are reacting to oil futures. That is a setup, not a warning.

AMD has not flinched. AVGO continues to win custom silicon allocations. The capex commitments of Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta — $635 to $665 billion in 2026 — have not been revised down. Not a single hyperscale earnings call this quarter walked back AI infrastructure spend because of the Iran conflict. The buildout is not pausing.

VST · CEG · LEU — Hormuz Is Doing the Marketing

OPEC+ added 206,000 barrels per day for May. To put that in perspective: the world consumes roughly 102 million barrels per day. The cartel’s response to the largest oil supply disruption in recorded history was a hike of two-tenths of one percent. That is not a fix. That is a confession.

Every minister, CFO, and grid operator on earth just received the same memo: the global hydrocarbon supply chain has no slack and no political insurance. The premium attached to domestic, dispatchable, fuel-secure, carbon-free power did not just go up — it became a board-level mandate at every hyperscaler that operates a data center in North America.

This is exactly what VST, CEG, and LEU exist to monetize. The Constellation–Meta 1.1 GW PPA is not a one-off. It is the prototype contract for the next decade of utility–hyperscaler agreements, and the bidding war for nuclear baseload is going to escalate from here, not de-escalate. Centrus Energy remains the only domestic producer of the enriched uranium fuel those reactors will need, with a contracted backlog stretching to 2040 and a federal mandate to expand it.

The Iran conflict is not a headwind for this pillar. It is the most expensive global advertising campaign in nuclear power’s history, and the bill is being paid by the people who shorted oil stability.

COIN · CRCL — A Test, Not a Thesis Killer

Circle had its worst session as a public company. The catalyst was a single draft revision of the CLARITY Act that prohibits stablecoin issuers from passing yield to holders — directly or indirectly — which would close the loop that lets Circle share USDC reserve interest with Coinbase as a distribution incentive. The market read it as an existential threat. We do not.

Two facts the tape is ignoring:

One. On April 2, 2026 — the same week — the OCC granted Coinbase conditional approval for a national trust bank charter. That is not a regulator hostile to the industry. That is a regulator inviting the most credible compliance-grade exchange in the United States into the federal banking perimeter. It is the most important pro-crypto regulatory decision of the year, and almost no one has connected it to the CRCL drawdown.

Two. The GENIUS Act is not the CLARITY Act. The Treasury has already begun implementing GENIUS via an 87-page proposed rule. The structural framework that codifies USDC’s legal foundation is already in motion. A draft amendment to a separate bill is exactly that — a draft, in a separate bill, with significant industry pushback already gathering. Citi’s framing remains the right one: this is a scaling setback, not a thesis killer.

Stablecoin supply across the system is still north of $320 billion. Cross-border settlement volumes are still growing. The behavior of USDC during the Q1 crypto drawdown — supply held at $78 billion while broader markets fell 44 percent — remains the single most important data point about whether stablecoins are speculation or infrastructure. They are infrastructure. A 20 percent down day on a regulatory headline does not unwrite that.

For the record: the fund did not sell CRCL into Tuesday’s collapse. The position was held. We view current pricing as an opportunity, not a warning.

PLTR — Government Spend Doesn’t Care About Brent

The macro narrative this week was risk-off. The PLTR thesis is the most macro-insulated position in the entire fund. Federal contracts do not get cancelled because the Strait of Hormuz is closed. Classified enterprise AI deployments are not paused because Powell is non-committal on cuts. The AIP platform is the only product on the market that meets the data governance and audit requirements of intelligence-community-grade customers, and the customer pipeline is independent of the equity tape.

May earnings remain the next major catalyst. Q4 2025’s 70 percent total revenue growth and 137 percent US commercial growth set a bar that the market is currently underestimating PLTR’s ability to clear.

CRWV — The Backlog Is the Story

$66.8 billion in contracted revenue does not move because oil moves. CoreWeave’s economics are a function of GPU supply, contracted hyperscaler demand, and the spread between compute cost and compute revenue. None of those three variables changed this week. The NVIDIA backstop is unchanged. The capacity ramp is unchanged. The 140 percent revenue growth trajectory is unchanged.

What did change is that other GPU-cloud comparables traded down with the broader risk-off move, compressing the relative valuation of a name with a contracted backlog the rest of the comp set cannot match. We are watching the entry point closely.

The Fed held. One cut projected for all of 2026. Net job creation effectively zero. PCE still printing 2.7 percent. Powell, in plain language, told the country he is not in a hurry.

This is not a crisis configuration. This is a slow-policy, low-growth, structurally-constrained-supply environment in which the cost of capital stays meaningfully positive and the economy continues to muddle forward. In that environment, the names that win are not the ones that need cheap money to justify their valuations. They are the ones with contracted, multi-year, inflation-protected revenue: hyperscaler capex commitments, 20-year nuclear PPAs, federal AI contracts, $66.8 billion GPU backlogs, and stablecoin reserve interest.

Read that list again. Then read the fund.

Five of six rows are neutral or constructive for the fund. The sixth — stablecoin regulation — introduced near-term volatility but, on net, the regulatory direction in Washington this week was more favorable to compliant, regulated digital finance issuers than it was a week ago. The OCC charter for Coinbase is the most underweighted positive headline of the month.

We did not sell into this week’s weakness. We are not capitulating. We are not adjusting the structural framework.

What we are doing is exactly what we said we would do last week: holding through the noise, watching for opportunities to add at compressed prices, and treating each high-volatility headline as a stress test of the underlying argument rather than as a reason to abandon it.

None of the five pillars failed this week’s stress test. Several of them passed it harder than they would have in a calm tape, because the events that defined the week — sustained Hormuz closure, an inadequate OPEC response, a Fed that has accepted slower growth, and a regulator quietly handing the most credible exchange in the country a national trust charter — are precisely the events the structural thesis predicted would happen and benefit from.

One week ago we wrote that conviction is not stubbornness, that it is the output of a thesis that has been stress-tested against current reality and held up. The past seven days have been a stress test. The thesis held.

Bottom line: if you held the line last week, hold it harder this week. If you did not have a position last week, the entry is meaningfully better today on at least three of the five pillars — and the structural arguments behind every one of them are stronger, not weaker. We will report back next week.

This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The views expressed represent the opinions of Nova One Capital as of April 6, 2026 and are subject to change without notice. Market data, analyst price targets, and event references in this letter reflect publicly available reporting as of publication.

The past thirty days have tested investor nerve. A joint US-Israeli military strike on Iran on February 28, 2026 triggered the largest disruption to global oil supply in recorded history. The Strait of Hormuz, through which twenty percent of the world's seaborne oil flows, ground to a near standstill. Brent crude peaked above $126 per barrel. Global equity markets repriced. Stagflation replaced soft-landing as the dominant narrative. Portfolios bled.

For most investors, this is a crisis. For Nova One Capital, it is a confirmation.

We write this not as reassurance. We write it as a public record of conviction. A document that we intend to stand behind, that we will be measured against, and that we believe — twelve and thirty-six months from now — will be recognized as having read the moment correctly.

The five structural themes underpinning the Nova X Convergence Fund are not hypotheses. They are observable realities, measured in hundreds of billions of committed capital, signed contracts, federal legislation, and physical infrastructure. The market sell-off has temporarily obscured that signal. It has not changed it.

Markets are extraordinarily efficient at pricing the present. They are far less efficient at pricing structural transformations that play out over years rather than quarters. This gap — between what the market prices today and what the world will look like in three years — is where we operate.

The Iran conflict has created genuine macro disruption. The IEA has called it "the greatest global energy security challenge in history." That is not hyperbole. Twenty percent of global seaborne oil was cut off at the source. LNG supplies from Qatar fell by over twenty percent. Commodity markets reacted violently, and broad equities followed.

None of that changes what the next three years look like for AI infrastructure, nuclear power, or digital financial rails.

Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta have collectively committed to spending between $635 billion and $665 billion on AI infrastructure in 2026 alone. That is a 67 percent increase over 2025 levels. These are not aspirational announcements made in bull market euphoria. They are binding capital allocation decisions made by four of the most financially disciplined organizations on earth — made after the conflict began, on earnings calls where analysts pushed hard on whether spending would slow. It will not slow.

What the macro environment has done is create a temporary disconnection between price and value across the names we hold. That disconnection, historically, is where the best long-term returns are made.

The Nova X Convergence Fund is constructed around five structural megatrends where multiple independent tailwinds converge on the same names at the same time. No name is held for macro exposure alone. Every position earns its place through a specific, falsifiable thesis.

AI Chips and Hardware — NVDA · AMD · AVGO

Every dollar spent building the AI economy passes through semiconductors. There is no version of the AI future that does not run on chips. The question is not whether the infrastructure buildout continues. It is who captures it.

The thesis across all three names is simple: approximately $450 billion of 2026 hyperscaler capex is directed at AI-specific infrastructure. That capital flows through chips. We are positioned across the three names best placed to capture that flow at different points in the stack.

Nuclear and Power Infrastructure — VST · CEG · LEU

Here is a fact the market has not fully priced: the AI buildout has a hard physical constraint that chips cannot solve. It needs electricity. Continuous, dispatchable, carbon-free electricity, at a scale the existing US grid was never designed to deliver.

A single hyperscale campus can consume 500 megawatts or more. The US grid has no meaningful spare capacity. Renewables cannot provide the 24/7 baseload that AI workloads require — the sun goes down and the wind stops, but the inference servers do not. There is one technology that solves this cleanly: nuclear.

The hyperscalers already know this. Constellation Energy's 20-year, 1.1 GW power purchase agreement with Meta starting in 2027 is the template for what AI power contracts will look like for the next generation. Microsoft's deal to restart Three Mile Island under a 20-year PPA is another data point in the same direction. These are not green-washing announcements. These are legally binding, decade-spanning commitments to nuclear baseload power because the hyperscalers have determined there is no alternative.

Here is the geopolitical overlay that the market is missing: the Iran conflict — the one event causing the current sell-off — directly strengthens the nuclear thesis. When the largest oil supply disruption in history reminds every government and corporation on earth that fossil fuel supply chains are fragile, the premium attached to domestic, fuel-secure, dispatchable clean power rises. VST, CEG, and LEU are direct beneficiaries of the very event creating short-term volatility in the broader market.

President Trump's executive orders directing a quadrupling of US nuclear generating capacity by 2050 codify the policy support. The contracts are signed. The infrastructure is operating. The demand is accelerating. This is not a prediction — it is a supply chain that is already executing.

Digital Finance Rails — COIN · CRCL

The stablecoin market passed $320 billion in March 2026. Adjusted transaction volumes grew more than 90 percent year-over-year. Visa now supports stablecoin-linked cards across more than 50 countries. The GENIUS Act, signed in July 2025, created the first comprehensive federal framework for dollar-backed stablecoins. The US government has explicitly chosen private-sector regulated issuers to lead the digitization of the dollar.

This is not a crypto thesis. This is a financial infrastructure thesis.

A recent draft of the Clarity Act spooked the market with proposed yield restrictions on stablecoins. The sell-off was significant and, in our view, overdone. Citi described the market reaction as a "scaling setback, not a thesis killer." Regulatory clarity, even imperfect clarity, is a long-run positive for compliant, regulated issuers. It raises the barrier to entry and codifies the advantage of incumbents like Circle.

AI Software and Platforms — PLTR

Palantir is the software layer that sits above the AI hardware stack and transforms raw compute into enterprise decision intelligence. It is not a chatbot. It is not a wrapper on top of a foundation model. It is a purpose-built AI operating system for organizations that operate in classified, regulated, and high-stakes environments — the most defensible and highest-value segment of enterprise AI.

Q4 2025 results were exceptional: 70 percent total revenue growth. 137 percent US commercial revenue growth. A government contract base that provides structural revenue floors no startup can replicate. The AIP platform is winning enterprise deployments not because it is the cheapest option, but because it is the only platform that can handle the data governance, classification, and decision-audit requirements of serious institutions.

The position has been right-sized from a peak weight that introduced valuation-compression risk to a weight that preserves full upside participation while managing concentration. This was discipline, not doubt. Trimmed to a targeted core weight, Palantir remains one of the highest-conviction positions in the fund. May 2026 earnings are the next major catalyst.

AI Infrastructure — CRWV

CoreWeave is the fund's highest-conviction emerging position and the name most investors have not yet fully understood. It is not a general-purpose cloud provider. It is a specialized GPU cloud, built from the ground up for AI workloads, operating in a segment that AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud are structurally unable to serve as efficiently.

The investment case rests on three independent pillars: a $66.8 billion contracted revenue backlog with large hyperscalers, 140 percent revenue growth, and a NVIDIA backstop investment that provides both a structural floor and the most powerful endorsement possible from the most important company in the AI supply chain.

The fund is building this position in tranches, with the second tranche contingent on Q1 2026 earnings execution in May. The unit economics of specialized GPU cloud are among the most interesting in the technology sector. CoreWeave captures the spread between what NVIDIA charges for GPUs and what hyperscalers pay for AI compute time, at scale, with a locked-in backlog that gives extraordinary revenue visibility.

Intellectual honesty matters more than comfort. So here is the unvarnished view:

There may be more downside. The Strait of Hormuz crisis is not resolved. Inflation could remain sticky. The Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts. Earnings multiples across growth names could compress further. The second quarter of 2026 could be worse for markets than the first. We are not calling a bottom. We never do.

Consider the math of structural convergences at depressed entry prices. AI chip demand that doubles every eighteen months, hitting names already at discounted valuations. Nuclear power contracts with decades of locked revenue, priced as utilities rather than infrastructure monopolies. A digital dollar settlement layer that grew transaction volume 90 percent year-over-year during a crypto bear market.

Investors who look back at March 2026 will not remember the precise bottom. They will remember whether they held their thesis when it was uncomfortable to do so. The ones who did will have the better story.

• AI Capex Reversal. If hyperscalers simultaneously conclude that AI ROI does not justify the current spend trajectory, the chip thesis collapses. We assign low probability. All four major hyperscalers are already reporting measurable revenue improvements from AI. The spending is self-reinforcing because early movers are seeing returns.
• Geopolitical Escalation. The Iran conflict is the most significant geopolitical event in decades. Further expansion — particularly anything affecting Taiwan or the broader semiconductor supply chain — would introduce new risk to the chip pillar. To date, TSMC and the semiconductor supply chain have not been materially affected.
• Regulatory Uncertainty in Digital Assets. The Clarity Act's proposed yield restrictions created real volatility. Crypto regulatory risk remains asymmetric. The digital finance pillar is sized to survive a negative regulatory outcome while still delivering meaningful upside if the thesis plays out.
• Nuclear Timeline Risk. The nuclear renaissance is real but measured in years, not quarters. The fund is positioned in operating capacity and fuel supply, not construction-stage projects. Contracted revenue backlogs provide visibility regardless of new build timelines.
• Valuation Compression. Growth multiples across the portfolio remain elevated even after the sell-off. A prolonged risk-off environment could compress them further. Position sizing and cash reserves are maintained precisely to manage this scenario.

The fund models three scenarios across a 5-year horizon. The 30-percent-plus CAGR target requires the bull case. The base case requires only partial execution across two to three pillars. The bear case requires simultaneous failure of all five structural themes.

The asymmetry is clear. Bear downside is modest. Bull upside is generational. Base case is competitive with any diversified growth portfolio. The fund is constructed around this asymmetric distribution, not around minimizing tracking error to a benchmark.

Every position in the Nova X Convergence Fund is held because of a structural argument measured in years, not quarters. The arguments for AI infrastructure, nuclear power, digital finance rails, enterprise AI software, and specialized GPU cloud are not weakened by the Iran conflict. Most of them are strengthened by it.

The hyperscalers are not pausing AI capex because of Hormuz. The data center power problem is not getting easier because oil is expensive. Stablecoins are not becoming less useful because BTC is down. Palantir's government contracts are not at risk from a macro selloff. CoreWeave's contracted backlog does not evaporate because markets are fearful.

Conviction is not stubbornness. It is the output of a thesis that has been stress-tested against current reality and held up. The fund has defined the specific conditions that would invalidate each position. None of those conditions are present today.

When markets give us lower prices on names where our conviction has not changed, the response is not to sell. It is patience. It is discipline. And in select cases, it is the deliberate addition of capital.

That is what Nova One Capital is doing. We believe the record will show we were right.

This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The views expressed represent the opinions of Nova One Capital as of March 30, 2026 and are subject to change without notice.